In using the model to six years of user statistics for 22 membership-based websites, Ribeiro found that it was capable of reliably predict which sites will be sustainable for the foreseeable future — such as the Huffington Post news site, Ashley Madison dating site and The Blaze commentary site — and which usually sites could not be sustained, like Flixster. com, OccupyWallSt. org and TeaPartyPatriots. org.
Ribeiro said his model could help investors understand which sites are self-sustaining and which are likely to fail, and also help website managers identify and correct problems in the dynamics associated with attention to their sites.
It’ s not enough to look at the entire membership or the growth of membership rights of a site to understand which sites will be successful, Ribeiro said. Their model accounts for the tendency associated with active members to become inactive, the particular influence that active members can have in encouraging friends to join or become active members, and the part of marketing and media campaigns within convincing people to join.
Ribeiro tested the model simply by evaluating both successful and lost sites. “ If you don’ big t look at the negative examples, you never understand what makes for success, ” he explained. Six years of daily number of active users (DAU) data, beginning in 2007, were obtained for 22 sites from Alexa, a Web analytics company. “ This study couldn’ big t have been done even two years back, ” he added, “ since data of this quality and breadth simply didn’ t exist. ”
Unfortunately, the model also suggests that in the quest for attention, many sites are likely to increase annoying behaviours, such as sending emails about what close friends on the site are doing.
“ If this model is correct, social network sites will try to make your friends’ life seem more interesting and your feedback on their posts more urgent, ” Ribeiro said. Many teens, for example, seem glued to their smartphones regarding fear of missing something that might get submitted on a social site by or about a friend. “ From the model’ s perspective it is beneficial for companies to be encouraging this type of behavior, ” he added.